Intro
Google announces "AI overviews." Publishers announce "uh-oh"
You've likely already seen GenAI Google results in the wild. Some are helpful, some are hilarious. The nature of a GenAI summary coming from an LLM is a single output coming from an expansive and varied set of inputs -- a concept Ben Thompson calls "The Great Flattening". Unfortunately, when AI generates a helpful answer, it means users don't visit the next webpage, putting the content provider's business model at risk. Fewer eyeballs on your site mean less ad revenue and subscription conversion potential. Many publishers view this as an existential threat to their existence.
The answer? Google's advertising arch-rival The Trade Desk recommends using this as an opportunity to authenticate and authorize your users. At Branch, we've long touted the benefits of creating a better user experience to increase engagement. Quite simply, directing users to your gated content provides the opportunity to drive real revenue results.
AI is here to stay and as search discovery becomes more difficult, publishers will need to increasingly build environments to contain, and retain, their users.
Industry Buzz
What will Apple announce at this year's WWDC?
We're still hovering at 30% market adoption for SKAN 4.0-- launched two years ago-- which many are considering the new normal. A fragmented, confusing, difficult-to-reconcile normal.
And to make matters even more confusing, Apple wants to change the name? According to the good folks over at Dataseat early indications suggest the moniker SKAN will be replaced with the very catchy "AdAttributionKit" in the next iteration of Apple's privacy-preserving attribution. The main difference from previously published SKAN 5 changes is support for third party app stores.
Why the name change? My guess is that Apple is protecting its App Store brand by not allowing alternative app stores to use an API titled the "Store Kit Ad Network" (SKAN).
I hope I don't end up eating my words but I don't think we will see any surprising privacy announcements as part in this year's announcements. Instead, like every other keynote, the conference will likely focus on a combination of actual, usable AI products and the promise of ones to come.
Privacy & Security
Mobile app ad fraud: Is it getting better, or worse?
Fraud is one of the glossed-over realities in the mobile app space. It has always existed and it will likely always exist. As a marketer, your goal is to minimize exposure.
It's tough to gauge the trajectory, Apple touted blocking $1.8B in fraud last year -- in a thinly disguised "marketing pitch to developers" (conveniently timed with the DMA's mandate for Apple to open up to third-party app stores.) Another study showed mobile app invalid traffic fraud has increased by 15% YoY to reach $1.4B. This may sound like a lot of wasted money, but with global spend topping $350 B, a half percent attributed to fraud seems like a bargain. It's likely much higher. Some claim it can acount for up to 20% of ad spend.
I've been arguing with anyone within earshot about the changing role of fraud in our ecosystem. With the rise of privacy-centric nondeterministic measurement, there is an argument that Apple's "cryptographically signed" ad network postback will limit click-spamming or attribution manipulation, the types of fraud perpetrated (willingly or otherwise) by the ad network to "claim" conversions. However, that doesn't help with fraud that mimics end users. Anyone who has seen the petrifying glimpse of click-farming in action understands that advertisers are very vulnerable when deterministic identifiers are obfuscated.
The bad news: the easier your campaign KPI is to achieve, the more susceptible you are to ad fraud. The good news? The remedy is the same as any successful performance strategy: tying your KPI into your successful downstream conversion event will naturally decrease your susceptibility to ad fraud.
Data
Ticketmaster had a rough week.
Last week the US Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against Ticketmaster's parent company, LiveNation. After an 18-month investigation, the suit wasn't a surprise, but it followed closely on the heels of a $5B consumer class-action lawsuit, one of many expected following the Federal suit.
To salt the wound, late last week they got hacked. The group Shiny Hunters crowed they've extricated 560 million customer records from Ticketmaster. Ouch.
Events
Leaders in Mobile Growth, London
June 13th marks our London stop on the worldwide Leaders in Mobile Growth tour. I'll be there and we've got a great group of speakers promising to foster some great conversation.
There's still room, request your seat!