Intro
It's only the middle of Q1 and we've already been rocked with monumental changes to our industry, most generated by Apple. And while the impact of EU app store changes will likely amount to a fizzle, the Vision Pro seems to be generating a promising glimpse of a new future.
One of my favorite parts of this time of year is the flurry of macro perspectives of our industry, in both the reflection of trends on the last 12 months as well as the insightful predictions on what may come. Some are good, some are inane, I've included the most thought-provoking I've come across.
In case you missed the last issue, my name is Adam Landis, I've picked up the pen-shaped mantle from my good friend Alex Bauer, the founder and hereto editor of the Mobile Growth Newsletter. He promises to remain an avid reader, you're missed but not forgotten Alex!
Interesting Reads
The Apple Vision Pro - a VR device that may kill the term "VR"
The Apple’s Vision Pro was finally released and has generated a wide mix of reviews – as well as a foreboding preview of vapid zombie content consumers clogging pedestrian thoroughfares. While impressed with the resolution, eye tracking and hand gestures, the initial product was greeted with a general sentiment of regretful repudiation: “I wouldn’t buy one” initially summarized Ben Thompson in his characteristically sober take after a few hours exploring the product.
I’ve been long a fan of AR/VR and think it a natural evolution of how humans and machines will interface. The early adopters seem to agree: no review or article I’ve come across fails to express the potential marvel in the future of these “spatial computing” devices. In a subsequent article, Thompson calls his Vision Pro experience on an airplane as "life-changing....absolutely worth it."
That said, Apple has made it clear they don't like the concept of virtual reality, it appears they've resorted to a virtual reality device simply because they don't tech necessary to build their ideal augmented reality device -- today the device relies on pass-through cameras to allow users to interact with the world.
In his excellent newsletter, the wonderfully named Joost van Dreunen points out Apple is forging an entirely new path with the Vision Pro: drop the R altogether:
"Apple insists that its third-party content creators refrain from using any reference to virtual reality or related terms. ('Refer to your app as a spatial computing app. Don’t describe your app experience as augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), extended reality (XR), or mixed reality (MR).'"
Of course, that's not stopping them from buying "VR" and "AR" keywords to promote the Vision Pro.
What is clear is the tech industry hasn't had a paradigm-shifting device launch since the iPhone. The Vision Pro may have flaws but it appears to have sparked the imagination of early adopters and will prove to be an exciting journey to witness.
Apple's EU App Store changes...won't change a thing
You may have heard of the EU’s Digital Markets Act which require large online platforms to “behave in a fair way.” Well, to no one’s surprise, Apple’s much-anticipated response to the DMA was to materially change EU App Store policy changes-- in a press release "dripping with disdain"-- but, spoiler alert: they aren’t likely to materially impact the economic status quo for app developers.
I've summarized the changes in a post and there are certainly savings to be had versus the standard store commission rates – back of the envelope, I calculate north of $600MM savings using publicly available Spotify financials.
However, most think app developers will stick with the status quo. Beyond the sheer technical complexity; the process will add hurdles in end-user adoption; notable administrative overhead--including, getting a million dollars of credit with Apple; and, most importantly, opting into these changes requires the upfront burden of paying Apple for all app downloads and future updates. Clearly, it’s a financial risk that few businesses can tolerate.
Eric Seufert also has an excellent ongoing editorial on the changes in his three-part series "Heads I win, tails you lose."
Data
Luma Partners Trends for 2024
Luma partners -- best known for their seminal Landscape Infographics -- repeatedly put out some of the best macro view industry trends.
In their latest report Conner McKenna touches on an interesting evolution of marketing-- one I've repeatedly seen in how brands are evolving to meet their customer across digital channels:
"Brands continue to put the consumer at the center of their marketing strategy and make personalization across the entire consumer lifecycle and experience. And while that has evolved over time, most of that has been geared towards O&O channels...but we're seeing consumers interact with brands on third-party platforms....Meta has noted that business-to-consumer messaging is going to be the fourth pillar to their business." (10:10)
Interestingly, while connecting to customers via WhatsApp may allow brands to increase touchpoints with their customers, it will also simultaneously shift complexity to, and ownership away from, the advertiser in terms of how they interact with their customers. Not to mention, it increases the power and influence of Meta over both the user and the advertiser.
Deconstructor of Fun audit their 2023 Predictions
It takes guts to admit you're wrong, and the gaming-focused group at Deconstructor of Fun are unafraid -- and unapologetic-- about missing the mark. Over 2023 gaming was a hard-hit sector, and everyone with a mobile app can stand to learn what the gaming industry is facing.
Notable verdicts they self-graded as correct: (1) organic discovery is dead; (2) paid UA becomes break-even; and (3) you might get laid off.
As well as the part-misses: (1) streaming platforms embrace gaming; (2) we're back to the office; and (3) gaming VCs face a reckoning.
The AppsFlyer Performance Index: Edition 16
The performance index is one of the hallmark methods for advertisers to source new ad networks and despite ad spend being largely flat in 2023, and the juggernauts taking ~90% of market share it's still a very viable strategy to expand your reach to new advertisers to uncover innovative methods for increasing the efficacy of your ad dollars.