Intro
Apple Intelligence is delayed but still leads in potential
Apple Intelligence as announced at last year's WWDC is officially delayed, making it yet another AI product that doesn’t help you. And despite the delayed delivery, Ben Thompson very compellingly spells out the huge potential for Apple to enable itself as an AI platform — provided it can bring itself to woo developers to play along.
However ethereally Apple Intelligence exists today, it seems to be writing the blueprint for how personalized AI (also small language models and agentic AI) will connect with third parties. Last month Amazon quietly announced Alexa+, in many ways a direct competitor to Apple Intelligence, boasting personalized AI to connect you (and your personal data and preferences) to the larger world. The developer page (better visualized in video) demonstrates how brands and third-party developers can connect to Alexa: “book a table at The Alderman, and send an Uber for Julie.”
This third-party integration is much like Apple’s App Intents, where the platform (Apple or Amazon) offers developers a framework for integrating their content and actions into personalized AI. This approach is becoming the de facto method for developer integration. Provided developers buy into the pitch.
Industry Buzz
A Foldable, Portless iPhone?
A 2026 launch for the elusive foldable iPhone is “entirely credible” according to 9to5Mac but will likely be the most expensive iPhone ever.
And just when you thought you were done throwing away old charging cables, Apple may ditch plugs entirely.
sigh
State of Subscription Apps
RevenueCat released its annual report on benchmarks for in-app subscription apps. Notable figures? (1) Hybrid monetization is the new standard: over 35% of apps now mix subscriptions with consumables or lifetime purchases. (2) Don't wait: 80% of trials happen on day one and nearly 30% of subs are canceled within month 1.
Privacy & Security
What’s going on with measurement?
The ad measurement space is more confusing than ever. This month, French antitrust regulators may fine Apple to repeal ATT — the tracking restrictions that remove personal identifiers. Meanwhile, Google has announced their allowance of fingerprinting, as well as hinting at a global, one-time opt-out of all cookie tracking.
If this is at all confusing, you’re not alone. Criteo — an ad retargeting business heavily dependent on cookies — is building their business explicitly planning to not plan on Google.
Adding more uncertainty is the rise of AI-dominated ad buying, where large ad plaform's new ML-driven advertising takes the targeting, measurement, and bidding out of the hands of the advertiser. This means Meta, Google, etc. control — among other things — the measurement feedback loop, which leads to conflicting priorities.
Eric Seufert puts the rub succinctly:
“This isn’t to say that an advertising platform is incentivized to maximize value for advertisers. Total campaign optimization automation seeks to maximize advertiser spend while delivering the minimum amount of acceptable performance to the advertiser such that their goals are met and they continue to invest in the platform. Could this involve conscious, deliberate waste? Yes.” Link (Paywall)
So what does all this mean? To us at Branch, it underlines the importance of an independent measurement methodology, one that provides privacy protection but also uses all data available to provide unbiased comprehensive measurement. In other words: take a pragmatic approach of using the data available today while keeping an eye on future changes and innovations.
Data
Gaming as a litmus for mobile
Anyone interested in mobile — even at the periphery — sees gaming as a forerunner in the vertical. Games constantly push the boundaries of technology, innovation, and growth. Therefore it’s with concern we’re watching the very first years of contraction in the space, “7% revenue decline after two decades of 700% growth.”
Joost van Dreunen eloquently summarizes the landscape: “gaming isn’t in decline—it’s resetting, shedding tech overreach, diversifying revenue streams, and shifting power back to players and creators as the industry enters its next era of innovation.”
He points out gaming is undergoing structural shifts that make games more accessible and relevant across industries. Anyone observing Applovin’s growing e-commerce business can watch this play out in real time.
While gaming as a category may be shrinking, it should be noted that mobile gaming in-app purchases are actually up 4% and time spent up 8% YOY. Sure, both mobile games and gaming at large are contracting, but that's after decades of explosive growth cementing both as key players in the mobile market.